The Power - and Folly - of Worrying

Worrying about your business isn't just about worrying if you can make payroll, if you can raise that next round before your runway disappears, or praying your competitors won't see that gap in your IP. It's about realism. You need to know your numbers better than your accountant (often you are the accountant in the early goings). You have to know your market better than your competitor. You have to know your code and your IP better than, well, anyone.


Embrace the fear
Fear is often called "the great motivator." And it can have a great impact on your company--and your bottom line. You should worry about the impacts of that new investment. That new furniture/computer/office/whatever. The growth your marketing push will have on your ability to handle increased traffic on your servers or sales on inventory/production. Making irrational assumptions and just letting the chips fall is an easy way to find yourself up a creek without a paddle.


How do I know I'm worrying too much?
Are you able to sleep? Have you not pitched your business to a potential customer/investor/partner because you were afraid they'd steal your idea? Worrying too much can have a  crippling on your ability as a decision-maker. A healthy dose of worrying is fine, but don't let it get to you.

When to Assume and When to Worry
This was posted on the window of our laboratory and production facility. Our chemistry and manufacturing guys are the consummate worriers. That's a powerful trait to have when what you're producing will either heal-or hurt-the recipient based on your attention to detail. And they are incredibly good at what they do. Other scientists and developers I've worked with are worriers as well. They worry about reproducibility/hypotheses/bugs/scalability/UX, you name it. And it helps them be better at their jobs. However, when you step away from the lab bench or the command line you see that you have to believe in your skills--or identify the areas you're weak in and consult someone who has those skills--to get the job done.
If you've ever put together projections for production, timetables, or pro forma financial statements, even the most basic, you know what a dramatic effect assumptions can have on the outcome. Tweak a value here or there and the result can differ by thousands, millions (even billions). Remember when Twitter's projections were leaked? Biz Stone had estimated 1 BILLION Twitterers! Sure, Biz. Not with the latest numbers I'm seeing. Assumptions can lead you down crazy roads.


Don't Assume, Don't Worry. Just Be Realistic.
The best thing you can do is to make assumptions, establish how and why you came to them, and stay mindful of them.  Don't be afraid to change and tweak as new info comes to light--especially if it is negative! The key to being realistic (and reducing the worry) is making rational assumptions based on whatever facts are at your disposal. Write into your model how you came to those conclusions so whoever reads it can come to those same conclusions.  I'm amazed at some of the stuff I read sometimes, it just doesn't make sense (Like the Twitter projections: One month of 1000% growth isn't sustainable, Biz).


So don't worry, just be "cautiously optimistic."