Moving Beyond Break-Even: Predictions for Energy Innovation in 2010

[I'm going to try to avoid the political debate and stay on the topic of tech adoption and innovation. There is incredible work being done in this space, regardless of the politics behind it.]

This past year we heard a lot of big headlines and saw sneak peeks of new technologies laying "just over" renewable energy horizon. Fuels from algae, fuels from trash, new thresholds of efficiency in solar cells being achieved almost daily, and some awesome home wind turbines. Problem is, most of these technologies are still either too expensive for widespread adoption or are still making their way from the lab bench.

So What's in Store for 2010?
Sadly, it'll probably be more of the same.  We'll see fantastical headlines.  Our blood pressures will rise, if only momentarily. Days and weeks will pass and the story will be forgotten. Then we'll see another jaw-dropping story and the cycle will repeat itself. We aren't seeing plug-in hybrids or hydrogen anything hit the market in 2010.  We'll see industrial advances, but little in the consumer space worth getting excited about.

Labs and "Big Energy" Will Advance Quickly
Technologies will advance, there is no doubting that.  We'll continue to get wowed by lab-scale achievements, and new breakthroughs 5 years to a decade from commercialization. We'll also continue to hear about rapid commercialization by large utilities and small entrepreneurial companies for industry-level innovations.  We'll hear about wind farms, solar fields, the "clean coal" advancements, carbon sequestration, and even some really wild geoengineering proposals.  Some will be hot air, sensationalist, and get a ton of press. Others will be quiet, but important, advances that will do more for this industry than we will probably ever know--or hear about.

What About Us?
But what we're all waiting for, and continue to wait for, is economies of scale. When will we see panels cheap enough to install on everyone's roofs? When, particularly for the windy state of Oklahoma where I reside, will tax credits (or better yet, just the retail price in the first place) be worth it to make the investment?

Moving Past Break Even
From my limited research it seems that we are getting nearer to that tipping point.  Many home turbines, like the one linked to above, are right at that critical point where the investment, minus tax credits and energy savings throughout the life of the product, reach the break-even point.  As such, the only people willing to spend the time and money to just break even are the ones on the fringe who are avid and extremely early renewable energy adopters with cash to spare.  What we need is products that will save people considerable money over the long run.  That is the only way we'll see rapid and widespread adoption.  When it's cheap and easy to use renewables, they'll be adopted.  This will be true in wind, solar, and geothermal.  Unless we see an uptick in the size of tax credits available to us, or dramatic price reductions as these companies move more inventory, we won't start seeing widespread adoption until 2011-2015 (depending on the tech).

Efficiency, Efficiency, Efficiency
The space in which we'll see the most rapid change will be not on energy generation, but in energy savings in the efficiency of everyday products we already use.  Companies like Serious Materials will continue to ship vast quantities of ultra-efficient sheetrock and windows for homes.  LED and compact fluorescents will continue to gain market share, and costs will come down. Electronics are getting more and more efficient.   And yet, the overall impact will be marginalized by the current economic wobbles.  The folks with the cash to make dramatic improvements in their homes are keeping it in their pillowcases.  We'll see improvements in 2010, but nothing too dramatic here.

What Can We Do?
Keep your eyes open.  A few companies and renewable energy innovations for the home may start to peek through the clouds and sell for attractive prices or long-term energy savings offsets.  Take a look at the federal tax credits available, and what your specific state's tax credits look like (states differ widely).  There are some great opportunities there.  Don't be afraid to call up some of these companies and talk to them about it.  They basically have to have someone on staff managing the different tax credits and reimbursements--they wouldn't sell much without them, sadly.


My Energy Resolution for 2010, and a Challenge to You
Find a renewable energy technology you connect with.  Find a product you think is cool, made by a company trying to change the world.  Call them.  Work with the company to find a way to get one in your home.  Move beyond the break-even.
I've got my eye on a few vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs). I'm hoping to bring one home this year.  It's poised to be a windy 2010 in Oklahoma, as usual.  And I'm going to make the most of it.